Gold or Silver?

[longnine009]

They both seem to doing pretty well.  But now "Who's Better, Who's Best?"

I was listening to the Radio last night. They were giving forecasts of 2008 and it didn't sound too good. One guy who wasn't there still sent in an email to say he thought there was going to be a world wide economic collapse in 2008 but what does it matter since we were all going to die anyway from a pandemic. And I though I was cynic.

So I'm curious what do people like, gold or silver? Where are headed? More inflation or deflation.

I'll say this about Ole "Bubbles" (Greenspan) he sure knew when to leave.

[AdamL]

I think gold, silver, and platinum will all do well this year. I like silver coins best. I guess that might be because I can't afford much gold or any platinum though.

[humpybong]

What has happended to the link we had to view current prices?

I need to know if I am a millionaire yet?

           

[scottishmoney]

Hate to say it, but now isn't the time to get in, that time has passed.  Two years ago silver was $6.50 an oz, and nobody was taking.  Now it is over $15, it has done better than gold, but gold has appreciated well too in that time

[Twoshadows]

Percentage wise I think silver would be the best bet should prices continue to rise. Of course I have been saying that for years. Silver is far more affordable on the average budget so it is attractive to many. I think each individual needs to understand why they are buying silver and what they expect. Silver bullion, such as silver eagles or maple leafs are very beautiful coins, but should be treated as silver bullion based on the silver market. Silver coinage, especially the classics, hold collector value and can and will have large variations on prices based on condition and availability which basically is demand versus supply. All can change at any given time so it is also important to know how long do you intend to hold such items and at what point or price will you sell? These are questions we all need to ask ourselves when playing the gold or silver game if it is investment driven. Set your goals and be prepared to wait, perhaps a lifetime, to realize you profit potential. Coins I have sold in the last few years have been very very good to me but many of them were held for years and years before offering up such potential. I buy everything with long term in mind and should a coin or set of coins explode quickly I then must decide whether to take advantage of the jump in value or hold on for the next jump, when ever that may be.
Actually I tend to see gold and silver as the old saing goes, "Someday you get the bear and somedays the bear gets you." It is nice to get the bear once in a while and I savor those moments when I guessed right but also know, given the chance, the bear most likely will get even! When it comes to money everything is a gamble but a little effort, learned knowledge and a few years of hobby wisdom helps level the playing field a tad bit. More importantly, at least to me, is the enjoyment the hobby brings and having a little fun. A little profit now and then is just icing on the cake!

[longnine009]

You know the dollar is in deep "do-do" when even models can figure it out.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article3132484.ece

[scottishmoney]

You know the dollar is in deep "do-do" when even models can figure it out.

http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/article3132484.ece

Even some "rapper" said he wanted to be paid in €uros, but who cares?  Frankly I want to be paid in 1 oz gold slugs

[Twoshadows]

Well Scottishmoney I am not quite so particular! If they don't have gold slugs I can live with silver, platinum, pallidium or copper. Just as long as I get paid!!!
Now I don't know how things are across the nation but my dealer is getting pretty squirrelly when it comes to buying gold. Especially in a larger quanity. I can remember him getting burnt a year or so ago when silver jumped up. He bought a bunch of Eagles at the time and soon after they arrived silver dropped a few bucks. He as been pretty gun shy ever since! Right now, in my humble opinion, is NOT a good time to be buying either gold or silver in quanity so I am patiently waiting for a drop. It appears I may have a long wait so I will bide my time with my traditional purchase of Eagles, Pandas, Koalas, Kangaroos and Maple leafs for the family collections (usually 4 per year of each) but won't add much more silver unless it is a collectable coin or something with a buffalo on it! (darn buffalos are killing me)! I need a few classics for friends in Europe so I will just concentrate on some of my trades to pass the time away.

[longnine009]

Right now I think the key thing with metals, especially gold, is cannibalization. You may have heard this called "globalization." The really sick part is, it encourages a country to find a way to destroy  it's own currency so they can export more and import less. It's not even the so called "race to the bottom." It's cannibalization. 

In the United States it's: "We built this city on Mr. Bubbles." a.k.a Alan Greenspan's credit expansion. It's drying up right now in real estate and I think it might do the same this year in the stock market. The liquidity is just a pipe dream--credit expansion fueling "Ole Bubbles" bubbles. When it disappears I think the U.S is going to go into a period of deflation. It might not, "Helicopter Ben" might start throwing money out of the helicopter as he once said he would do to prevent a bad recession.

Maybe he will, but I don't believe him.  What better way for well heeled speculators to make a fortune than to accumulate tons of wall paper dollars at wall paper prices and than the fed allows the house of cards to come down and bring on deflation that automatically adds "value" to the currency? It will just be another twist on Hamilton's Assumption Law that made many well to do currency speculators even richer while the soldiers who fought in the Revolutionary war starved to death.
"The blood of soldiers makes good varnish for your carriage sir..."

Yes, it could be different this time.  But why should it be? The corruption we have today isn't even the little sneak thief  that Hamilton was.  This stuff is  "in your face" corruption.

If we do end up with deflation there may be a window to buy metals at lower prices. At least that's what I'm hoping for. In the long run I believe gold and silver are going to do very well but you have to survive the short runs.

[scottishmoney]

I believe that inflation, and perhaps even hyperinflation is a much more likely scenario for the US economy.  The government is printing paper and creating mountains of debt that are beyond comprehension.  You can build a house of cards and it may stand for awhile, but then a breeze comes along in the form of China calling it's loans to the US due and selling off it's US$ reserves and it all tumbles.  If you doubt me on inflation, perhaps you have not been to the grocery store recently, where in the last year prices have gone up a minimum of 10% and as much as 40% percent, this due to rising fuel costs, production costs etc.  The only thing succoring the rise in fuel and commodity expenses for me is that noble yellow metal.

[longnine009]

You might be right. I think the war in Iraq  will be more than enough to ensure  inflationary pressures. But there are deflationary pressures as well. You mentioned the grocery store. Does the happy homeowner who until recently had been living off the rising value of his home still going to the grocery store to buy Delmonico steaks or  do  beanie weenies fit his budget now? Is he still driving the 8 mpg SUV or the city bus?

I'm not aware of even one historical bubble that ended on an inflationary note. And I think the real estate debacle is hundreds times worse than they are making it out to be. It's deflationary effects snowballing through the economy may very well over come any inflation that's here now. Or maybe not.  But I think  we are going to find out this year.

[scottishmoney]

Deflationary pressures only exist currently in real estate, it had to happen.  But inflationary pressures, with US debt, trade deficits, the decline of the dollar when so many consumer goods are imported etc. will more than offset deflation. 

[Paint Your Wagon]

I read 5 gold forums and am active on one and nobody agrees

First I think there may be a significant difference between Canada having resources and the US and of course the unpegged Euro and probably Aussie dollars

Gold has made historical highs whilst silver has not

There is no solution to the mountain of debt and there are several scenarios one more painfull then the other
Hyperinflation followed by Deflation is one
Stagflation is another
Both counting on India and China etc keeping some growth going for the all world

Some people believe that by 2011 the DOW and gold will be equal again whether it be at 10 000 or 2200
2200 dollars an ounce is the inflation adjusted hight of 850 in 1980

Short term it stands to reason that gold will shoot up to 1020-1050 and then temporarily drop back to 850

The best overview of gold is weekly here
http://www.investmenttools.com/futures/metals/welcome_to_the_page_about_gold.htm

The best chart ever is Australian point and figure chart
http://www.the-privateer.com/chart/gold-pf.html

It may still be time to put 10% of your spare money in gold since there is several years left in this move
So my vote goes with gold even percentage wise

[scottishmoney]

Silver has appreciated a wee bit better percentage wise than gold, but carries greater risks in volume.  Personally I care little for silver because it is a hassle to store at any rate.  But it does carry small value for menial purchases should such needs arise in economic calamity.

[Twoshadows]

Going back and re-reading the above postings I find a lot of information and wisdom that many collectors and new comers should be reading. Free first hand advice is hard to find in a world full of hype and getting info from anyone who in NOT trying to sell you something is hard to find these days! It amazes me how the stock market is hyped every day on the news channels but seldom a word about precious metals? The average individual, who really has no knowledge of either, is fodder for the wolves in todays market.